Experts Say Negotiations Are "Zero" and "Iran's Face Will Not Be Restored"
As the deadline set by US President Trump for launching an attack on all of Iran approaches, Pakistan, which is mediating the talks, has announced that the two countries have agreed on an "immediate ceasefire." Will this truly end the fighting?
Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif (SNS)
"We have agreed on an immediate ceasefire."
Regarding the situation in Iran, Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif announced on the 8th that the US and Iran have agreed on an immediate ceasefire. The ceasefire will last for two weeks, and face-to-face talks between delegations from both countries will be held in Islamabad on the 10th to reach a final agreement to end the fighting.
US President Trump...
US President Trump (SNS)
"We have agreed to a two-week halt to attacks on Iran. This is a mutual ceasefire."
Trump has stated that this ceasefire is conditional on "Iran agreeing to the immediate and complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz."
US President Trump (SNS):
"We have received a 10-point proposal from Iran. I believe it forms a feasible basis for negotiations. We can reach a final agreement in two weeks."
Iran's 10-point proposal includes: ▼"A guarantee that the US will not invade Iran," ▼"Continued control of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran," ▼"Acceptance of uranium enrichment activities," as well as ▼"Lifting of sanctions" and ▼"Withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East region."
According to White House officials, Israel has also agreed to a two-week ceasefire.
Meanwhile, Iran…
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi (SNS):
"If attacks on Iran cease, we will also suspend our defensive operations. Safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks."
While Trump stated that he would "help resolve the blockage in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz," he also wrote that "we will stay in the vicinity to ensure it works," which may suggest that US forces will be deployed around the strait.
This agreement was announced unexpectedly. Experts offer the following analysis of the likelihood of a successful negotiation:
Mitsugu Saito, Visiting Professor at Kwansei Gakuin University and former Ambassador to Iran:
"The possibility of a successful negotiation is zero. Iran still hasn't recovered its lost face. This inability to recover face is a matter of maintaining its regime, and maintaining the regime is paramount to Iran, so it will continue fighting. The US is also concerned about rising gasoline prices, so they've only conducted the negotiations as a temporary measure."
The negotiations are scheduled to take place during the two-week ceasefire period, but…
Mitsugu Saito, Visiting Professor at Kwansei Gakuin University and former Ambassador to Iran:
"It could last up to a month. The side that breaks off negotiations first will be at a disadvantage. Neither side intends to reach an agreement, but they will be held accountable."
Trump has emphasized an optimistic outlook, saying it could be a "golden age for the Middle East," but is an end to the fighting truly in sight?
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